000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N84W TO 07N88W TO 07N100W. 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N100W TO 11.5N122W WHERE THERE IS A 
BREAK AS A RESULT OF A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N124W TO 10N127W. 
THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES FROM 11N129W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 133W.  

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP 998 MB LOW PRESSURE 
AREA CENTERED NEAR 38N134.5W EXTENDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM 
30N129W TO 23N140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FOUND W OF THE 
FRONT...WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 17 FT IN NW SWELL OVER THE FAR NW 
PART OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT SE WHILE FILLING 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COMBINED SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL 
REACH NEAR 22 FT FRI NIGHT.

TRADE WIND FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT. LINGERING 
MIXED NE AND S SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT REMAIN S OF 
LINE 17N140W TO 18N106W TO 07N95W. THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO 
SUBSIDE...AND FALL BELOW 8 FT BY FRI NIGHT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE N WIND FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 45 KT OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SAT AND 
FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SAT EVENING. ASIDE FROM THE 
STRONG WINDS THEMSELVES...LOOK FOR A LARGE AREA OF NE SWELL TO 
BE GENERATED FROM THE GAP FLOW...REACHING AS FAR W AS 110W BY 
LATE SAT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT SOME PULSES TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE 
DRAINAGE EFFECTS INTERACTING WITH ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN.

$$
AL