000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW 09N85W TO 08N105W. NO MAJOR 
CONVECTION IS NOTED. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N125W TO 09N132W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 122W NEAR AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER PATTER REMAINS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER 
CYCLONE N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N135W WITH A TRAILING TROUGH 
THROUGH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A RELATED SURFACE COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM A DEEP OCCLUDED 992 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 40N135W TO 
35N128W TO 30N130W TO 25N140W TO N OF HAWAII. A 0540 UTC ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED SW WINDS AT 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N 
OF 28N...AND NW WINDS AT 20 KT FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR THE 
MOMENT...BUT THE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TODAY 
AS COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA AND THE LOW PRES DIGS FURTHER 
S. THE LOW WILL FILL AS PUSHES SE...REACHING 30N126W BY 12 NOV 
AT 12 UTC...AND 29N119W BY 13 NOV AT 12 UTC. THE FRONT WILL 
TRAIL AS FAR S AS 22N. AN 11 UTC ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS OF 8 
TO 12 FT NEAR 28N137W...WITH SEAS TO 18 FT FURTHER N. CONSENSUS 
OF WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS OF 8 TO NEAR 20 FT IN NW SWELL 
PUSHING INTO THE AREA...REACHING A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 17N140W 
WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST 08N140W BY 48 
HOURS. 

FURTHER S...TRADE WIND FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
DUE TO THE WEAKENING HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM AROUND 10 UTC 
SHOWED SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN A BROAD AREA FROM 04N TO 17N W OF 135W. 
THIS IS PART OF A LARGER AREA OF MIXED N AND S SWELL COVERING 
THE AREA GENERALLY FROM 04N TO 20N W OF 110W. THIS SWELL WILL 
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH 24 HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEW 
ROUND OF SWELL PUSHING IN FROM THE NW. NW TRADES WILL GRADUALLY 
INCREASE SAT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 
N OF THE AREA.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 04 UTC SHOWED 
20 KT NW WINDS DOWN THE SPINE OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...LARGELY DUE TO THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROUGH 
OVER THE GULF...AND HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTH 
AS WELL AS OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. WINDS ARE LIKELY BELOW 30 KT 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRES OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH 24 
HOURS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SE FROM THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF AS THE SHIFTS SE 
AND DISSIPATES. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY 
LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...THEN SPREAD S DOWN 
THE GULF THROUGH SUN AS THE LOW MOVES TO OFF THE CENTRAL COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE N WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT SURGING THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO 
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER 
INCREASE TO JUST BELOW STORM FORCE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE FRI NIGHT AND FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW 
20 KT SAT. ASIDE FROM THE STRONG WINDS THEMSELVES...LOOK FOR A 
LARGE AREA OF NE SWELL TO BE GENERATED FROM THE GAP 
FLOW...REACHING AS FAR W AS 110W BY LATE SAT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT SOME PULSES TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO MAINLY EARLY SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNINGS DUE DRAINAGE 
EFFECTS INTERACTING WITH ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN