000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100953 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU NOV 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA AT 10N85W TO THE E PACIFIC AT 07N102W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO THE AN ITCZ WHICH THEN TURNS NW TO NEAR 12N119W. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ORIENTATED NE TO SW FROM 16N119W TO 10N124W...BUT IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. THE ITCZ AXIS RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH NEAR 10N126W AND CONTINUIES BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 15 NM OF 04N78W AND 07N113W. ...DISCUSSION... THERE UPPER LEVELS ARE PROGRESSIVE. A DEEP LAYERED UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 40N135W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ITS ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW NOW EXTENDS S OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 29N W OF 132W. A LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES CENTRAL N AMERICA WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SE THROUGH THE PATTERN WITH ITS MEAN AXIS ALONG 32N100W TO 17N106W AND CONTINUING S INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N110W. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE CONTINUES E OF THE TROUGH AXIS COVERING THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A BAND OF VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS SHIFTING E WITHIN IN THE TROUGH... ROUGHLY WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24N110W TO 31N108W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 05S142W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING N WELL BEYOND 32N122W TO ACROSS WESTERN N AMERICA. UPPER SUBSIDENCE IS ROTATING S AROUND THE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC W OF 113W. HOWEVER A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME IS ADVECTED E INTO THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10N TO TO 30N W OF 120W WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE SPREADING E ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N95W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND INTERIOR COLOMBIA IS ADVECTED W OVER THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 09N TO THE E OF 92W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF 18N E OF 98W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 25N135W. A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED FROM 32N130W TO 25N140W WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT OBSERVED N OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH NW WINDS ARE ONLY 15 TO 20 KT W OF THE FRONT...LARGE NW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING SE RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT. THESE NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DRIVING THE SEAS HEIGHTS TO 18 FT ON FRI. BY THEN A SURFACE LOW WILL BE SHIFTING SE AND REACH NEAR 32N126W FRI NIGHT TRAILING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT W OF THIS REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL REACH NEAR 29N120W EARLY SUN THEN WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY MON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT SURGING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER INCREASE TO JUST BELOW STORM FORCE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE FRI NIGHT AND FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT SAT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY LATE TONIGHT. $$ NELSON