000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N99W TO 07N103W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 12N119W...WHERE THERE IS A BREAK AS 
A RESULT OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 16N119W TO 10N124W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED S OF 12N WITHIN 90 NM W 
OF TROUGH. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES FROM 10N126W TO 08.5N132W TO 
10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 1022 MB IS NEAR 31N121W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING TO NEAR 18N107W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH 20 KT TRADES FROM 12N 
TO 18N W OF 122W.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT SE WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING...WINDS 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE THU 
NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING HIGH 
PRESSURE...THE FRESH 20 KT TRADES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE W PART 
OF THE AREA BY THU NIGHT. 

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA 
EXTENDING FROM 30N136W TO 28N140W. COMBINED SEAS WILL RAPIDLY 
BUILD IN NW SWELL OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING 18 FT BY THU NIGHT...AND TO 22 FT BY 
FRI NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE 
FRONT WILL START TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS LATE 
TONIGHT...AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY THU 
AFTERNOON...AND JUST BELOW STORM FORCE BY THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE FRI NIGHT AND FURTHER DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT SAT NIGHT.

$$
AL