000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081552 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE NOV 8 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM 09N84W TO 08N102W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 09N116W AND MEANDERS BETWEEN 08N AND 10N TO BEYOND 140W. LOW LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED NE-SW FROM 15N113W TO 09N117W IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N112W TO 08N136W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 107W IS MOVING W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N88W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE MOST PROMINENT LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 15N113W TO 09N117W...WHICH HAS DISRUPTED THE MONSOON TROUGH / ITCZ AXIS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWS WELL DEFINED CONVERGENCE AXIS W OF 115W AND WEAK MONSOONAL FLOW E OF 102W...BUT BETWEEN 102W AND 115W NO CLEAR-CUT BOUNDARY EXISTS. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ERUPTING ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS W OF THE TROUGH DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N134W TO S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 17N108W. ENE TRADE WIND FLOW IS BEING ENHANCED S OF THE RIDGE AS IT MERGES INTO THE ITCZ BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WIND DRIVEN SEAS ALONG WITH BACKGROUND NW SWELL IS GENERATING 11 FT SEAS OVER A WIDE SWATH OF THE BASIN... FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 115W. THE HIGH NEAR 32N134W WILL SHIFT E TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. IT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N136W TO 28N144W WED AFTERNOON AND REACH FROM 32N130W TO 25N140W THU MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL BE WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT NW BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED NIGHT AND THU FROM A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E TOWARD CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACT FROM THE FRONT WILL BE LARGE NW SWELL THAT WILL SWEEP INTO NW PORTION AND SPREAD SE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LEADING EDGE OF SWELL TO ARRIVE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17-18 IN NW PART BY THU NIGHT. WW3 WAVE MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF NW SWELL CROSSING 30N ON FRIDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20-24 FT N OF 28N BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES FURTHER E TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY WED AND DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THU. A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SW GULF AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO WILL FUNNEL WINDS TROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING THU MORNING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE 20-30 KT ON THU...THEN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THU NIGHT AND FRI. PEAK WINDS AROUND 45-50 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH WIND EVENT. $$ MUNDELL