000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071932 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 7 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N105W TO 12N114W TO 
10N118W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AXIS FROM 10N118W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG 115W DOMINATES NE PORTION OF DISCUSSION 
AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING 
SE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 04N107W DISRUPTS ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N93W HAS A RIDGE
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 20N111W. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH NW WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT IN 
NW SWELL. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA THROUGH TUE. FRESH ENE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE S OF THE 
RIDGE WITH SEAS 9 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO 
PROPAGATE SE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE 23N110W 
TO 07N120W TO 07N140W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST TO 
PERSIST THROUGH TUE OVER THE GULF WATERS BEHIND THE WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT...THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WED THROUGH THU. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WED. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL 
SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS EARLY AS LATE WED POSSIBLY 
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE THU.

$$
MUNDELL