000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070308
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N85W TO 07N94W. ITCZ FROM 07N94W TO 
08N100W TO 13N110W...THEN RESUMES FROM 12N114W TO 10N125W...THEN 
RESUMES FROM 08N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. A TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 15N110W TO 09N111W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. A TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 13N125W TO 08N129W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 23N125W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
29N120W TO 28N130W. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT FURTHER SE AND 
REACH FROM 28N115W TO 26N125W TO 30N135W THROUGH LATE 
TOMORROW...THEN DISSIPATE INTO TUE AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER 
TROUGH LIFTS OUT. 
SW WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL REACH 20 KT BY EARLY 
MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER ON MON AS THE COLD FRONT 
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 35N141W. THIS WILL 
SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS ANOTHER 
UPPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. NW WINDS ALONG 
THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE 
TOMORROW...BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACHING HIGH PRES.

FURTHER SOUTH...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS WERE NOTED NEAR 111W 
AND 128W BETWEEN ROUGHLY 15N AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AXES. 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWED A LARGE SWATH OF 20 KT TRADE WINDS W 
OF 120W...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND THE SURFACE 
TROUGHS ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGHS. THIS AREA OF 20 KT 
TRADES WILL EXPAND E IN STEP WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF 
THE AREA ELONGATING EASTWARD THROUGH TUE.  

MEANWHILE NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT AND PERIODS 
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA W 
OF 110W. THIS WILL DECAY THROUGH TUE...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE 
NORTHERLY SWELL MOVES S ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND THE 
COLD FRONT.

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH 
THE GULF OF MEXICO WED. THIS WILL PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR 
STRONG GAP WINDS...POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL 
BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE 
WED...PRESENTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...POSSIBLY TO 
GALE FORCE...OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WED NIGHT 
AS WELL.

$$
CHRISTENSEN