000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N84W TO 06N95W TO 11N110W. ITCZ FROM 
10N112W TO 09N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. A TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 15N108W TO 10N111W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. A TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 13N123W TO 08N128W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 23N125W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N123W TO 29N132W. THE COLD 
FRONT WILL SHIFT FURTHER SE AND REACH FROM 28N115W TO 26N125W TO 
30N135W THROUGH LATE TOMORROW...THEN DISSIPATE INTO TUE AS THE 
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS 
CENTERED NEAR 36N142W. THIS WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC. NW WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 
THE APPROACHING HIGH PRES.

FURTHER SOUTH...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS WERE NOTED NEAR 110W 
AND 125W BETWEEN ROUGHLY 15N AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AXES. 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWED A LARGE SWATH OF 20 KT TRADE WINDS W 
OF 120W...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND THE SURFACE 
TROUGHS ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGHS. THIS AREA OF 20 KT 
TRADES WILL EXPAND E IN STEP WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF 
THE AREA ELONGATING EASTWARD THROUGH TUE.  

MEANWHILE NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT AND PERIODS 
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA W 
OF 110W. THIS WILL DECAY THROUGH TUE...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE 
NORTHERLY SWELL MOVES S ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND THE 
COLD FRONT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN