000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061514
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W TO 06N95W 
TO 12N108W TO 08N115W TO 09N127W. ITCZ AXIS LIES FROM 09N127W TO 
06N134W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS S OF THE AXIS TO 04N E OF 84W. TWO TROUGHS LIE 
NEAR THE AXIS. A TROUGH IS FOUND FROM 16N106W TO 08N111W HAS 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 
12N TO 16N AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM E OF 
THE TROUGH FROM 08N TO 11N. A SECOND TROUGH LIES FROM 12N123W TO 
06N128W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 
NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 07N TO 09N AND ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 07N TO 11N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NW 
MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH NORTHERN WATERS AND 
NORTHWEST MEXICO FRI AND SAT. NW SWELL FROM THIS FRONT AND A 
FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGER OVER WATERS PRIMARILY N OF 20N AS 
A RESULT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE AS HIGH AS 13 FT IN NE 
WATERS ACCORDING TO THE 0948 UTC JASON1 PASS. THIS SWELL WILL 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS IT TRAVERSES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 
03N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TUE 
MORNING.

FRESH NE TRADE WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY THE 0522 UTC ASCAT PASS 
OVER WATERS W OF 130W. NE WINDS ARE ALSO BUILDING BETWEEN THE 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 12N123W TO 06N128W 
ACCORDING TO THE 0704 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE HIGH IS IN THE 
VICINITY OF 37N145W BUT IS CURRENTLY BISECTED BY A FRONT. THIS 
FRONT IS DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH AND 
WILL REACH NE WATERS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY MON MORNING AND USHER IN 
FRESH NW WINDS BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING AND 
SENDING THE FRESH WINDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. MEANWHILE...THE 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SHIFT SE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL 
ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO EXPAND EASTWARD BY MON MORNING TO A SECOND 
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM 16N106W TO 08N111W AND MOVING W AT 
5-10 KT. CONVECTION NEAR THIS TROUGH AND THE TROUGH FROM 12N123W 
TO 06N128W IS DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION. 

THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM JET FOUND ALONG 
23N IS SUPPLYING BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT IS LIFTING 
SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH. THE RESULT IS A LARGE AREA OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS 
PRIMARILY FROM 09N TO 23N W OF 107W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CHANGE LITTLE AS THE JET IS FORECAST TO LIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY N 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE LARGEST 
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES N OF 04N 
E OF 84W. A WEAK ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY LIES NEAR 06N85W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION HERE BY LIFTING THE MOISTURE RICH TROPICAL AIR 
CONVERGED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST 
TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NW TOWARD GUATEMALA BY TUE MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER