000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060307
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N100W TO 
11N105W...TO A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 105W. ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N110W TO 08N115W TO 10N122W TO 08N125W TO 
11N140W. SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER PATTERN HAS TEMPORARILY BECOME MORE ZONAL N OF 25N AT 
THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NE PACIFIC. THIS 
HAD BEEN DEPRIVING UPPER SUPPORT FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS 
SINKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BAJA COAST AND ADJACENT PACIFIC 
WATERS W OF 120W...AND THE FRONT HAS BECOME DIFFUSE. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OFF OF 
NORTHERN BAJA...BETWEEN TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO AND AN ELONGATED 
HIGH PRES AREA N OF HAWAII BUILDING E. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
THROUGH 24 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E. HOWEVER...ANOTHER 
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH SUN AS 
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SHARPER AND DIGS INTO THE WESTERN 
U.S. NW WINDS TO 20 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT BECOMES 
DIFFUSE PUSHING S DOWN THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST SUN INTO MON. SW 
WINDS TO 20 KT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT BRIEFLY OVER THE FAR 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT. 

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM AROUND 18 
UTC SHOWED NE TRADES TO 20 KT PERSISTING S OF THE HIGH PRES FROM 
THE ITCZ TO 20N W OF 125W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE 
AREAL EXTENT OR INTENSITY OF THESE WINDS AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS 
TO THE N OF THE AREA. NW SWELL RANGING FROM 8 TO 13 FT AND 
PERIODS AROUND 14 SECONDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA 
COAST TO NEAR 20N140W...AND WILL SHIFT SE TO COVER THE AREA FROM 
THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST TO 10N125W TO 10N140W THROUGH 24 HOURS. 
THE NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY INTO MON...AND COVER MOST OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 06N W OF 110W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 04N105W. EASTERLY FLOW ON THE 
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CYCLONE IS CREATING A DIVERGENT SPLIT IN 
THE 60 TO 70 KT WESTERLY JET...SUPPORTING BURSTS OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 13N106W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS 
DISCERNIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 105W. 
ASIDE FROM SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...THE MAIN IMPACT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL 
BE 20 KT TRADE WINDS TO THE N OF THE TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS S OF 
THE ELONGATED RIDGE TO THE N. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN