000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N90W TO 07N97W. 
ITCZ AXIS LIES FROM 07N97W TO 12N105W TO 08N115W TO 09N120W TO 
07N125W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MID TO UPPER PATTERN HAS TEMPORARILY BECOME MORE ZONAL N OF 
25N AT THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NE 
PACIFIC...LIMITING UPPER SUPPORT TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA TO 22N130W. SHIP 
DATA INDICATE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OFF OF NORTHERN 
BAJA...BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND 1032 MB HIGH PRES 
BUILDING E FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 24 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E. 
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S ALONG THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST THROUGH SUN AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SHARPER AND 
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. NW WINDS TO 20 KT WILL FOLLOW THE 
FRONT AS IT BECOMES DIFFUSE PUSHING S DOWN THE NORTHERN BAJA 
COAST SUN INTO MON. SW WINDS TO 20 KT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT 
BRIEFLY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
SUN NIGHT. 

ELSEHWERE W OF 110W...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM AROUND 18 
UTC SHOWED NE TRADES TO 20 KT PERSISTING S OF THE HIGH PRES FROM 
THE ITCZ TO 20N W OF 125W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE 
AREAL EXTENT OR INTESITY OF THESE WINDS AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS 
TO THE N OF THE AREA. NW SWELL RANGING FROM 8 TO 13 FT AND 
PERIODS AROUND 14 SECONDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA 
COAST TO NEAR 20N140W...AND WILL SHIFT SE TO COVER THE AREA FROM 
THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST TO 10N125W TO 10N140W THROUGH 24 HOURS. 
THE NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY INTO MON...AND COVER MOST OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 06N W OF 110W.

GAP WINDS...20 KT FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
DIMINSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. FURTHER S...A 1415 UTC ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED WINDS TO 15 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAY BRING 
ELEVATED WINDS AROUND 20 KT TO THE SURFACE IN THE PAPAGAYO 
AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE BRIEF.

$$
CHRISTENSEN