000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051523 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT NOV 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N91W TO 08N97W. ITCZ AXIS LIES FROM 10N102W TO 08N112W 08N126W TO 10N134W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 122W AND WITHIN 140 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 135W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 85W. ...DISCUSSION... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NW MEXICO. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH NORTHERN WATERS AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH WIDESPREAD COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS IN ITS WAKE. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS FROM 0404 UTC SHOWED SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAD REACHED NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY DIMINISH TODAY ALONG WITH THE FRESH NW WINDS OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH WERE PARTIALLY CAPTURED BY THE 0546 UTC ASCAT PASS. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO AS HIGH AS 15 FT IN NE WATERS ACCORDING TO THE 1020 UTC JASON2 PASS. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS IT TRAVERSES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MON MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER W WATERS. NE TRADE WINDS LIE S OF THE COLD FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE IN STRENGTH OR EXPANSE INTO SUN BEFORE EXPANDING EASTWARD ON MON AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH IS CURRENTLY BISECTED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WELL N OF THE AREA. THIS SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH AND REACH NE WATERS BY SUN EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY MON MORNING AND USHER IN FRESH W TO NW WINDS. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM JET FOUND ALONG 20N IS SUPPLYING BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT IS LIFTING SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE RESULT IS A LARGE AREA OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS PRIMARILY S OF 20NW OF 115W. SOME SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT PLOWED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO YESTERDAY STILL LEAVES A LINGERING COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT CURRENTLY FOUND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY EVENING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS GENERATED FRESH NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NIGHTTIME DRAINAGE WILL ENHANCE THE EASTERLY FLOW BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FRESH WINDS TO BRIEFLY RETURN SUN MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. $$ SCHAUER