000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 5 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N96W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
10N96W TO 11N103W TO 08N121W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
DENSE AIR IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0400 UTC 
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA SHOWED NLY WINDS TO 25 KT N OF 15N... 
ABOUT 5-10 KT LOWER THAN EXPECTED FROM THE GFS MODEL FORECAST AT 
THE TIME. WINDS HAVE PEAKED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO SHIFTS EAST. 

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FROM 30N113W ACROSS THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 26N116W TO 22N132W TO 23N140W. 
FRESH TO STRONG SW TO W WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 27N FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS WHILE LARGE NW 
SWELL GENERATED BY THE SYSTEM SWEEPS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. 
EXPECT MAXIMUM SEAS TO 18-19 FT NEAR 30N127W THIS MORNING 
SUBSIDING TO 15-16 FT NEAR 29N123W TONIGHT.

A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 1032 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N152W TO 26N122W DOMINATES MOST 
OF THE SUBTROPICAL REGION. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN 
PLACE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND 
SUPPORT FRESH NE TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 10N 
AND 20N W OF 125W.

$$
MUNDELL