000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050306
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 5 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 09N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
09N95W TO 11N100W TO 08N110W TO 09N115W TO 08N122W TO 11N135W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS W 
OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...DENSE AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED 
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS 
EVENING. OBSERVATIONS FROM COATZACOALCOS AND MINATITLAN ON THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS WERE SHOWING WINDS TO 32 KT AND 30 
KT RESPECTIVELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED WINDS AT THE 
SOMEWHAT SHELTERED SITE NEAR SALINA CRUZ ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
THE ISTHMUS WERE SHOWING WINDS TO 29 KT...HINTING THAT WINDS 
OFFSHORE MAY HAVE BEEN REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE. THE WINDS 
HAVE LIKELY PEAKED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS 
EAST.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A HIGH RESOLUTION 1649 UTC ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 30 KT SW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N. THE NEAR GALE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND SW ARIZONA AND WILL 
DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SAT AS THE SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. 

W OF 110W...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N117W TO 25N125W TO 
25N135W. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 1830 UTC SHOWED N WINDS 
TO 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
SHOWED SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT IN N SWELL. A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH 
PRES AREA CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N150W BEHIND THE FRONT 
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 
THE ITCZ AND 20 KT W OF 125W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN