000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 14N95W TO 07N110W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 07N110W TO 08N115W TO 07N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 
102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO NOTED CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF 
AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...DENSE AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED 
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS 
AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS FROM COATZACOALCOS AND MINATITLAN ON THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS WERE SHOWING WINDS TO 32 KT AND 30 
KT RESPECTIVELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED WINDS AT THE 
SOMEWHAT SHELTERED SITE NEAR SALINA CRUZ ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
THE ISTHMUS WERE SHOWING WINDS TO 29 KT...HINTING THAT WINDS 
OFFSHORE MAY HAVE BEEN REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE. THE WINDS 
HAVE LIKELY PEAKED OR ARE JUST ABOUT TO PEAK...AND WILL DIMINISH 
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO SHIFTS EAST.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A HIGH RESOLUTION 1649 UTC ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 30 KT SW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N. THE NEAR GALE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA 
COAST...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT 
APPROACHES...THEN DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SAT AS THE SUPPORTING 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. 

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED 04N104W. 
UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CYCLONE IS ENHANCING 
MODEST CONVECTION WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS CONVERGING INTO THE 
MONSOON THROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 102W. 

W OF 110W...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N118W TO 27N125W TO 
26N135W. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 1830 UTC SHOWED N WINDS 
TO 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SEAS 
OF 9 TO 12 FT IN N SWELL. A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA 
CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N150W BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
MAINTAIN AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE 
ITCZ AND 20 KT W OF 125W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN