000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 4 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N87W WITH A BREAK... 
STARTING AGAIN AT 11N96W TO 08N105W...THEN ITCZ TO 00N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W 
AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS OCCURRING WITH PEAK 
WINDS AROUND 30 KT AND PEAK SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 
FT. NO IN SITU OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE THIS MORNING AND 
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE.  
ONLY THE 06 UTC GFS MODEL SUGGESTS BRIEF 35 KT N TO NE WINDS 
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NONE OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 
THE EVENT WILL BE QUITE THIS STRONG.  FORCING OF THIS EVENT BY 
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD 
RELAX RELATIVELY QUICKLY WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW 30 KT 
SATURDAY MORNING AND BELOW OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD BY LATE SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS IN OUR AREA FROM 30N121W TO 27N132W.  N TO 
NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT HAVE DROPPED TO ABOUT 20 KT AND 
SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD IN ABOUT A DAY.  
HOWEVER...12 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL WILL COVER MOST OF THE 
AREA NORTH OF 15N BY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM THESE 
SWELL SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY MORNING AT 16 FT ALONG OUR NORTHERN 
BORDER BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY.  

A DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES IS CAUSING S TO 
SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  
THIS SHOULD LIKELY PEAK THIS EVENING AS SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT IN 
THE GULF NORTH OF 29N WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 8 FT...AS THE 
WAVES ARE FETCH LIMITED BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF INSTEAD OF ALONG 
THE GULF.  THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD BY 
SATURDAY EVENING.

A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 137W IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD 
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALSO 
HELPING TO PRODUCE 20 KT NE WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20N AND SEAS 8 
TO 10 FT. THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA OF 
RESPONSIBILITY ON SATURDAY...BUT THE 20 KT NE TRADEWINDS SHOULD 
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  NO FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...TYPICAL 
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...IT 
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME THAT THERE WILL BE ANY GALE FORCE 
WIND EVENTS IN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

$$
LANDSEA