000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 4 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N92W TO 08N101W...THEN 
AS ITCZ TO 07N113W TO 10N129W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST FROM LOS ANGELES TO 30N125W TO 27N140W. FRESH TO STRONG N 
TO NE WINDS ARE INDICATED FROM SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE OBS N 
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF 20 KT WINDS CROSSING 30N 
W OF 125W. THE FRONT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES 
INLAND ACROSS THE SW U.S. BUT GFS MODEL FORECAST DOES SHOW WINDS 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER WEST TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH BELOW 
20 KT SAT WITH SEAS REMAINING BELOW 8 FT DUE TO SHORT E-W FETCH.
STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD ESE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE 
WEEKEND AND EXTEND FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 
37N148W TO AROUND 22N115W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT REACHING THE WEST 
COAST SAT NIGHT WILL INITIALLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE BUT REINFORCING 
COOL AIR WILL ALLOW THE HIGH TO REBUILD A STRONG RIDGE FROM NEAR 
35N142W TO 22N110W SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE STRONG RIDGE WILL 
ALSO MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N W OF 130W.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ALLOWING HIGH
PRES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE E COAST OF MEXICO AND TIGHTEN 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS ECMWF AND 
UKMET MODELS INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT 
LIKELY...NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY 25-30 KT WITH BRIEF EPISODES TO 
30-35 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING TODAY THEN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. 
THE FRONT IS LOSING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS MARGINAL AT BEST...
AND HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. SO HAVE 
DECIDED NOT TO PROCEED WITH A GALE WARNING TODAY BUT WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR AVAILABLE DATA FOR USUAL TELLTALE SIGNS OF GALES THERE.

$$
MUNDELL