000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N86W TO 07N103W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 10N120W TO 10N134W 
TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120-240 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 121W AND 127W AND ALSO 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE 
W GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
BRINGING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
STARTING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA HAVE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH SW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT REACHING 
NEAR GALE FORCE BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS 
EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH W FACING PASSAGES. THE FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY 
THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SAT 
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...A WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRES AREA THAT 
WAS NEAR 09N94W HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS 
LOW WAS UNDER A REGION OF BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 
AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N89W AND AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N108W TO 00N99W. THIS CONFLUENCE 
ALOFT CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTION DESPITE PLENTY OF LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. 
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 03N TO 07N WHERE 
THERE IS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE 
SW SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW 
INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 
EASTERN CUBA THROUGH CENTRAL PANAMA.

W OF 110W...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 
TO 32N130W TO 31N140W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N WATERS 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BRINGING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. 
LARGE NW SWELL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 FT OVER THE N 
CENTRAL WATERS BY SAT. STRONG 1038 MB HIGH PRES CURRENTLY 
LIES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT NEAR 41N151W. THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO THE S IS FORCING FRESH NE 
TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS W OF 125W ACCORDING TO THE 1857 UTC 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
SHIFT W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND IS FORCED
SW BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

$$
LEWITSKY