000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 10N85W TO 12N90W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 09N94W 1010 MB TO 07N103W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 09N120W TO 10N132W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
LIES WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NE 
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CHIVELA PASS AND 
BRING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING 
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN EARLIER GALE EVENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA IS BELIEVED TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS STRONG HIGH PRES 
THAT WAS OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS SHIFTED EAST TO THE FRONT 
RANGE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES....ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW 
LAND OR SHIP OBSERVATIONS OR SCATTEROMETER DATA IN THE AREA TO 
CONFIRM THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NW 
WINDS BELIEVED TO BE IN PLACE WILL DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON. 
ON FRI MORNING...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND REACH NEAR GALE FORCE BY 
EVENING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH W 
FACING PASSAGES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES 
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND 
SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...A WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRES AREA 
PERSISTS NEAR 09N94W. THIS LOW LIES UNDER A REGION OF BROADLY 
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER EL 
SALVADOR AND A TROUGH AXIS FROM 26N113W TO 00N100W. THIS 
CONFLUENCE ALOFT IS INHIBITING CONVECTION DESPITE PLENTY OF LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THE LOW. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN 
THE SECTION ABOVE. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 04N TO 
07N WHERE THERE IS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW 
AROUND THE SW SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE AND 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA THROUGH CENTRAL PANAMA.

W OF 110W...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES N OF THE AREA FROM 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 32N140W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO N 
WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BRINGING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WITH 
IT. SWELL WILL BE THE LARGER HAZARD FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 FT OVER N CENTRAL 
WATERS BY SAT MORNING. STRONG 1039 MB HIGH PRES CURRENTLY LIES 
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT NEAR 43N152W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO THE S IS FORCING FRESH NE TRADE WINDS 
OVER WATERS W OF 123W ACCORDING TO THE 0624 UTC ASCAT PASS. 
THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 
THE HIGH WEAKENS AND IS FORCED SW BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT. 

$$
SCHAUER/CHRISTENSEN