000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0830 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N85W TO 12N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
10N94W 1010 MB TO 07N103W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N103 TO 07N114W TO 09N130W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF MONSOON 
TROF AXIS BETWEEN 94W TO 97W...WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ 
AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE LIKELY BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS OVER 
THE GREAT BASIN HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST TO THE FRONT RANGE OF 
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO SHIP OR ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA...LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS FROM SAN FELIPE IN 
THE FAR NW GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOW WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 30 KT 
YESTERDAY TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THROUGH TODAY DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE 
GULF...THEN SHIFT SW TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO 
THE AREA OFF THE PACIFIC. WINDS WILL INCREASE N OF 27N BY LATE 
FRI...THEN DIMINISH INTO SAT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT ABOUT TO ENTER THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO WILL PUSH INTO THE SW GULF AND BRING WINDS TO GALE FORCE 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING 
INTO FRI NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...A WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRES AREA 
PERSISTS NEAR 09N93W. THIS FEATURE IS TO THE SE OF A SHARP UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N113W TO 00N100W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT 
WINDS W OF THE OF THE LOW PRES ARE SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROF BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. 

W OF 110W...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES N OF THE AREA...WITH 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 135W N OF 30N SHIFTING E...AHEAD 
OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE N OF HAWAII. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 34N140W IS APPROACHING THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...FOLLOWED BY A 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA 
OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC IS BUILDING SE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S 
OF 30N TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FRESH 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW. FURTHER 
SOUTH...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER FROM AROUND 06 UTC SHOWED FRESH 
TRADE WIND FLOW JUST BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 15N...W OF 120W. THIS 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. 
EARLIER ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. THIS IS MOSTLY 
IN NW AND N SWELL THAT WILL SUBSIDE TO MAINLY 8 FT TODAY AND 
LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE 20 KT TRADE WINDS S OF 
15N...TO THE NORTH WHERE LARGER N SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 
FT WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AND REACH AS FAR S AS 24N BY LATE 
FRI NIGHT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN