000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030308 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU NOV 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N85W TO 10N92W TO 07N98W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N98W TO 06N110W TO 09N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... DISSIPATING 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS NEAR 33N140W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 17N110W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ RESULTING IN FRESH TRADES FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 22N W OF 130W AS CAPTURED BY EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. DECAYING NW SWELL TO 11 FT IS NW OF A LINE FROM 29N115W TO 25N120W TO 22N130W TO 22N140W AS VERIFIED BY 1900 UTC AND 2100 UTC JASON 1 AND 2 ALTIMETER PASSES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 9 FT FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 115W IN 24 HOURS...THEN FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W IN 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE THE AREA OF TRADES ALSO PERSISTS THROUGH 48 HOURS NOT VARYING MUCH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS NEW HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THU EVENING EXTENDING FROM 30N120W TO 28N130W TO 27N140W AT THAT TIME...THEN WEAKENING AS IT REACHES FROM 30N116W TO 27N120W TO 25N130W TO 24N140W IN 48 HOURS. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 15-17 SECONDS BUILDING SEAS TO 15 FT ALONG 30N BY 48 HOURS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 25 KT AT LAND BASED STATION IXTEPEC IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF OAXACA. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF THROUGH 24 HOURS MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW...THEN WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AROUND 06 UTC FRI AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES BY N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. COLD AND DENSE AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...WITH THE GALE WARNING FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00 UTC SAT. LEFTOVER NE SWELL GENERATED BY AN EARLIER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE...MIXED WITH SW SWELL TO 8 FT EXISTS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. THIS AREA WILL MERGE WITH A NEW SET OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS FROM 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 15-17 SECONDS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WHERE A GALE WARNING WAS IN EFFECT N OF 29N UNTIL 00 UTC. A RARE 2000 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS CAPTURED 11 FT SEAS NEAR 30N...LIKELY A RESULT OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS GIVEN SUCH A LIMITED FETCH GENERATION AREA IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. WHILE THE GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS TO 27N WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THU AFTERNOON WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF 29N/30N COMMENCING AROUND 12 UTC FRI AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY