000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022128 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED NOV 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N86W TO 07N96W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N96W TO 08N120W TO 08N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 130W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N137W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NE PACIFIC. FURTHER S-SE...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 20N113W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ RESULTING IN FRESH TRADES FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W AS CAPTURED BY A 1736 UTC ASCAT PASS...AND ALSO FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 135W AS INDICATED BY A 1916 UTC ASCAT PASS. MIXED NW AND NE SWELL IS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 23N125W TO 20N140W WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. A SHIP WITH CALL-SIGN 'VRZN7' NEAR 30N122W REPORTED 10 FT SEAS AT 17 UTC. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 116W IN 24 HOURS...WITH A NEW SET OF NW AND NE SWELL TO 12 FT ARRIVING BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH FROM 30N120W TO 26N130W TO 25N140W IN 48 HOURS. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE AREA OF TRADES OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN NEW HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE ITCZ. A NEW SET OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO 8 FT WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 15-17 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL WATERS IN 12 HOURS WHERE IT WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH 48 HOURS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N. LAND BASED STATION SAN FELIPE ALONG THE NW GULF COAST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT. ALSO...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE 8-10 FT SEAS N OF 29N DESPITE THE LIMITED FETCH AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AT 00 UTC THU...THEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HOURS AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 29N/30N COMMENCING AROUND 12 UTC FRI AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 25 KT AT LAND BASED STATION IXTEPEC IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF OAXACA. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE AROUND 06 UTC FRI AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES BY N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AND DENSE AIR FUNNELS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 12 UTC FRI FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. $$ LEWITSKY