000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021539
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1430 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
08N92W 1010 MB. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 07N94W TO 06N105W TO 08N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 120W.  

...DISCUSSION...

1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N140W CONTINUES 
TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THE 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 30N120W TO 27N140W IN 48 HOURS 
WITH WINDS 20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. FURTHER S...THE CONVERGENCE 
OF THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING MODEST CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. LIKEWISE THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AND 1010 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 7N AND E OF 94W TO INCLUDE CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO EL SALVADOR. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO 8 FT WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 
17-19 SECONDS HAS BREACHED THE EQUATOR OVER THE FAR SE PORTION 
E-NE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A NEW SET OF SW SWELL 
ARRIVING OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS IN 48 HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF RESULTING 
INTO GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N. THE GALE IS EXPECTED TO LAST 12 
HOURS. THE HI-RES WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE DOES BUILD SEAS TO 10 
FT N OF 29N DESPITE THE LIMITED FETCH AREA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHWARD 
THROUGH THE GULF AND HIGH PRES WEAKENS OVER THE UNITED STATES 
GREAT BASIN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... 20-25 KT WINDS PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE EARLIER STRONG GAP 
WINDS IS MIXING WITH SW SWELL TO CREATE AN AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS 
OF 8 TO 9 FT IN THE AREA FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. A 
COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THU WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER 
SURGE OF COLD AND DENSE AIR EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS AND DOWNWIND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A GALE 
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING 1200 UTC FRIDAY. 

$$
FORMOSA