000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020922 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED NOV 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N91W 1010 MB TO 06N99W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N99W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 120W. ...DISCUSSION... 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N135W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NE PACIFIC. AS A RESULT...WINDS OVER THE AREA S OF 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM 0506 UTC AND 0648 UTC SHOWED MOSTLY 15 KT NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF ALL GLOBAL WAVE MODELS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FRESH N SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 12 FT MOVING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS FAR S AS 22N THROUGH EARLY WED...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT. EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 30N AND 35N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W INDICATED N SWELL IN EXCESS OF 15 FT IN SUPPORT OF MODEL FORECASTS. THE N AND NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT AND WILL EVENTUALLY COVER THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST TO 08N140W BY LATE THU. THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG S TO 30N BY THU NIGHT...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE ALONG 27N BY LATE FRI. N TO NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH N SWELL TO 9 FT. MEANWHILE...THE CONVERGENCE OF THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING MODEST CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO 8 FT WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 17-19 SECONDS HAS BREACHED THE EQUATOR OVER THE FAR SE PORTION E-NE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A NEW SET OF SW SWELL ARRIVING OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS IN 48 HOURS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE UNITED STATES GREAT BASIN REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER BETWEEN ARIZONA AND CALIFORNIA SHOW N WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COMMENCE IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA PRIOR TO SUNRISE WED. FINDINGS FROM A LOCAL RESEARCH STUDY INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD (NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF N OF 29N WITH A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND TROUGHING E OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THIS AREA FROM 12 UTC WED THROUGH 00 UTC THU. ALSO...THE HI-RES WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE DOES BUILD SEAS TO 9 FT N OF 29N GIVEN A 12 HOUR DURATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS DESPITE THE LIMITED FETCH AREA. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF AND HIGH PRES WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 0318 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CONFIRMING THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MODIFIES AND SHIFTS E. NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE EARLIER STRONG GAP WINDS IS MIXING WITH SW SWELL TO CREATE AN AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN THE AREA FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BY TO THE N THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO LATE THU WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AND DENSE AIR EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND DOWNWIND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE TOPS WINDS OUT AT 30 KT AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT IN CASE ANOTHER GALE WARNING IS NEEDED. $$ CHRISTENSEN