000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011500
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH09N84W TO LOW PRES07N87W 6N96W. INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE 6N96W 8N130W 7N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 128N-140W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA FROM 30N138W TO 21N140W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN
300 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM 25N130W TO 8N125W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
23N122W TO 3N102W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE AREA S OF 25N BETWEEN 
120W-90W. THE SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN 
THIS AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH EXTENDS FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N93W 
NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO.

STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE 
FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL LOWS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. A 1011 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 8N87W SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE 
LOW. ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 8N114W. A FEW 
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW. ANOTHER SURFACE 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR 
9N128W. CONVECTION WITH THE LOW AS DESCRIBED IN ITCZ SECTION.

$$
DGS