000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010931 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE NOV 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N87W TO 07N98W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM 07N98W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N118W TO TROUGH NEAR 09N133W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM NICARAGUA TO WESTERN PANAMA. ...DISCUSSION... STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL TO THE N OF THE AREA NEAR 45N135W. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 28N W OF 125W. NE TO E TRADE WINDS ARE ACTIVE S OF THIS AREA AS WELL...N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS INTO WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE NE PACIFIC...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND AREAL EXTENT. AT THE SAME TIME...NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 9 FT AND PERIODS TO 15 SECONDS...ALONG WITH STEEPER N SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WITH PERIODS AROUND 10 SECONDS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA SW TO NEAR 15N140W. MEANWHILE...THE CONVERGENCE OF THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING MODEST CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W. AN UPPER TROUGH SHOWS UP IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WITH GOES HIGH DENSITY UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM 21N122W TO 12N115W. A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED NEAR 13N120W DUE TO INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE TROUGH. FURTHERMORE...UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N118W ESTIMATED AROUND 1008 MB. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INTO WED AS IT MOVES W OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT...ALLOWING NW TO N WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. SEAS WILL NOT BUILD APPRECIABLY DUE TO THE LIMITATIONS OF FETCH AND DURATION. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY SHIP OR SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC RECENTLY...EARLIER LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS FROM SALINA CRUZ MEXICO ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SUPPORTS GLOBAL MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWING 30 TO 35 KT GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR PUSHED THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS N OF THE AREA MODIFIES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WED INTO THU...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE THU AS ANOTHER PUSH OF DENSER AIR FUNNELS DOWN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE FORCE GAP WINDS WILL GENERATE NE SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT EXTENDING FURTHER TO THE SW...FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...INTERACTING WITH SW SWELL PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM ACROSS THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO WESTERN PANAMA...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRES NEAR ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 07N87W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES AROUND 1008 MB WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED AS IT DRIFTS W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. $$ CHRISTENSEN