000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312141
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N86W TO 06N107W. 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 06N107W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N115W 
TO 09N129W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 06N87W AND FROM 
07N TO 09N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE 
LOCATED NW OF A LINE FROM 32N118W TO 22N130W TO 13N140W. 
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE SPEEDS RANGING FROM 35 TO 
45 KT. A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED LOCATED AT 13N116W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 05N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 122W. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE IS LOCATED THROUGH 
32N138W TO 23N122W TO 18N108W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM GOES13 
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EQUATOR INTO MEXICO BETWEEN 
92W AND 110W. OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LIGHT 
TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED E OF ABOUT 92W. A 
GALE WARNING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING N WINDS 
25 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO 
DROP BELOW GALE FORCE IN 36 HOURS.

$$
CAB