000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311457 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON OCT 31 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 8N87W TO LOW PRES NEAR 8N115W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 8N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 8N113W TO LOW PRES 9N128W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST OF COAST RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 126W TO 131W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 27N134W TO 7N128W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NE OF HAWAII HAS SPREAD INTO THE W PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 10N-30N W OF 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N128W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N116W CONTINUING TO 5N105W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE AREA S OF 25N BETWEEN 120W-90W. THE SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO TO 7N91W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 6N-9N E OF 88W. STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE TUE EVENING. SEVERAL LOWS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. A 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 8N87W SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE LOW. ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 8N114W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW. ANOTHER SURFACE 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR 9N128W. CONVECTION WITH THE LOW AS DESCRIBED IN ITCZ SECTION. $$ DGS