000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N105W TO LOW 
PRES 1007 MB NEAR 09N122W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
IS ANALYZED FROM 09N122W TO 07N127W TO 10N133W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE 
COAST FROM EL SALVADOR TO WESTERN PANAMA.

...DISCUSSION...

1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 
34N135W. SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP DATA SHOW A SWATH OF 20 KT TRADE 
WINDS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE 
ITCZ...FROM 15N TO 22N W OF 125W. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST 
AND EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH 48 HR AS REINFORCING HIGH 
PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE PERSISTENT FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW 
WILL ALLOW SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT TO FORM IN THIS AREA AS WELL 
THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM SHIP  
ZCDF4 E OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND ANOTHER REPORT FROM 
SHIP A8IF4 AT 00 UTC...SHOW WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. WINDS 
MAY STILL BE REACHING GALE FORCE IN THE CENTER PORTION OF THE 
GULF NEAR THE COAST...BUT ARE LIKELY DIMINISHING AS THE AIRMASS 
TO THE NORTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MODIFIES. THIS WILL BE 
TEMPORARY AS REINFORCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PROVIDING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER 
AIR THROUGH THE SW GULF AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE CHIVELA PASS AND 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE GALE 
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 48 HOURS. NE SWELL IN 
EXCESS OF 8 FT GENERATED BY THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT GAP FLOW 
IS ALREADY PUSHING WELL TO THE SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THIS WILL ENCOUNTER CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO CREATE AN AREA 
OF CONFUSED SEAS N OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W BY MON MORNING.

FURTHER S...SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY 
INDICATE SW TO W WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT S OF PANAMA...CONVERGING 
INTO A BROAD LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS INDICATES THIS LOW 
WILL PERSIST AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY. FORECAST REFLECTS PERIODS OF 
FRESH SW FLOW TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION THE GFS MODELS DEPICTS GAP 
WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE MON. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN