000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N86W TO 08N95W TO 
11N125W TO 10N132W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS 
ANALYZED FROM 10N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST FROM EL SALVADOR TO WESTERN 
PANAMA.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N135W TO 
17N135W WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT AND LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 
NEXT 36 HOURS. UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS 
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF MODEST CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 
124W AND 128W. DEEP LAYER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE N OF 
30N...CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 135W WITH 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES 
CENTERED NEAR 35N132W. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SHOWED 15 TO 20 KT 
TRADE WIND FLOW S OF THE HIGH PRES FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 125W. 
THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS BETWEEN THE 
PERSISTENT HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
ALONG 145W ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY MID TO UPPER TROUGH NE 
OF HAWAII.

FURTHER E...SHIP AND ASCAT DATA SHOW 20 KT NW TO N WINDS OFF THE 
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND OVER THE 
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH PRES 
TO THE NW...AND A SURFACE 1006 MB LOW PRES AREA OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW 
PRES FILLS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 0300 UTC SHOWS 25 TO 30 KT WINDS 
ENTERING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC RELATED TO A COLD FRONT THAT 
PUSHED INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE 
DENSE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE 
FORCE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 20 KT EXTENDING AS FAR AS 360 NM SW OF THE GULF. SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 14 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WINDS 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH SUN AS THE AIRMASS OVER THE SW 
GULF MODIFIES. 8 TO 10 FT NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP FLOW 
WILL EXTEND AS FAR AS 500 NM S TO SW OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA BY 
LATE SUN...THEN DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH MON. GAP WINDS MAY 
INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.

MODERATE SW FLOW S OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA MAY INCREASE 
SLIGHTLY S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS THE LOW PRES OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW IS PUSHING SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST FROM EL SALVADOR TO WESTERN 
PANAMA...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.

$$
CHRISTENSEN