000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N86W TO 10N92W TO 09N96W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 09N96W TO 11N110W
TO 11N120W TO 11N128W...THEN IT RESUMES FROM 11N134W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 08N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 121W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 114W AND 119W...AND FROM 
10N TO 11N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO 
THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 10N87W 01N80W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N120W TO 28N133W BEYOND
14N140W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N128W TO 15N130W TO A 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N131W. NUMEROUS STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 129W AND 130W. A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO IS PRESENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND 
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS SHIFTING THE AREA OF FRESH WINDS 
WESTWARD.

HI RESOLUTION ASCAT WINDS AT 0412 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA DUE
TO A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE 
PACIFIC OCEAN RIDGE/ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. FRESH WINDS WILL 
BECOMING NORTHERLY AND EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE GULF 
WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BY 48 HOURS AS THE GRADIENT TIGTHENS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO.

THE SAME ASCAT HI RESOLUTION WINDS ALSO INDICATED 20 TO 30 KT 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH ACCOMPANYING 
SEAS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 11 FEET. THESE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW ADVISORY 
CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH 
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURGE OF 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...AND INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
MT