000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260301
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N94W...THEN AS ITCZ AXIS 
TO 12N126W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM
S OF AXIS W OF 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG TO NEAR-GALE N-NE WINDS TO CONTINUE 
ANOTHER 18-24 HRS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SYNOPTIC FORCING 
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY WED THROUGH FRI...BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT 
ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRI WILL INDUCE ANOTHER 
TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT THIS WEEKEND.

DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 36N125W TO 25N135W TO 15N138W 
IS ENHANCING SLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS E OF TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 
130W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR MODERATELY ACTIVE ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 127W. TRANSITION TO
CUT OFF LOW ALONG 135W WILL OCCUR THROUGH THU WHILE RIDGE BUILDS 
NEAR 16N115W. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS 
THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFTS 
TO PROGRESSIVE WEST MOTION FOR ALL SURFACE FEATURES AS MONSOON 
TROUGH WEAKENS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N121W TO 10N131W WITH 1010 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 12N129W WILL SHIFT W THROUGH THU WHILE HIGH PRES N 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ELEVATED W OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
DUE TO ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT. NE SWELL GENERATED N OF 30N HAS 
PROPAGATED INTO THE REGION NW OF A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 20N140W 
WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE IN NW PORTION 
THROUGH THU MORNING.

FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...PEAKING AT AROUND 20 KT ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE GULF IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
MUNDELL