000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 12N97W TO 
10N108W...AND FROM 19N118W TO 09N125W...THEN AS ITCZ TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 127W 
AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 35N126W TO 20N140W. UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS ANCHORED E OF THE TROUGH ALONG 110W. THE UPPER TROUGH 
IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD TO 10N135W BY THU...AS THE RIDGE ALONG 
110W EXPANDS WWD. THIS PATTERN HELP MAINTAIN A SURFACE RIDGE IN 
N AND NW PORTIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. BOUNDARY LAYER ELY STEERING 
FLOW WILL BECOME ENHANCED S OF 15N...AND INDUCE A PROGRESSIVE 
WWD MOTION OF FEATURES ACROSS THE TROPICS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE 
WINDS N OF 26N W OF 132W. SEAS BUILD TO 8-11 FT UNDER MIX OF NE 
WIND SWELL AND NW SWELLS THROUGH TUE. PRES GRADIENT S OF HIGH AND
ITCZ ALSO PRODUCING FRESH NE TO E TRADES W OF 133W. TRADE WINDS 
WILL WEAKEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY E-SE THROUGH MID-WEEK.  

STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS
INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC VEERING ELY DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS 13N100W.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BRIEF GALE EVENT WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW GALE FORCE TUE 
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE RINA MOVING SLOWLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR 
SEVERAL DAYS MAY INDIRECTLY INDUCE ENHANCED LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE 
FLOW TO REACH NEAR GALES AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH WED. 
 
$$
MUNDELL