000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N91W TO 09N96W TO 08N106W AND FROM 
LOW PRES CENTER 1011 MB AT 18N116W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB AT 
12N119W TO 09N122W...THEN AS ITCZ TO 08N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 32N130W TO 25N140W BRINGING 
ADDED NEW ENERGY BURST TO NW CORNER OF BASIN.  PRESENT FRESH TO 
STRONG NE BREEZE N OF 27N W OF 130W WELL AHEAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE 
TIMING AND A NOTCH STRONGER.  GUIDANCE ALSO MAKES IT A SHORT- 
LIVED EVENT DIMINISHING WINDS AS EARLY AS TUE AS UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH LIFT NE TUE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...DYNAMICAL MODELS SLIDE 
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTO LONG WAVE TROUGH FORMING CUT OFF 
CYCLONE BY WED...SO RE-ENERGIZED REGION MIGHT NOT DIMINISH WINDS 
AS SOON AS PRESENTLY EXPECTED.  SEAS BUILD TO 12-14 FT AND 
LINGERING SWELLS MAY REACH AS FAR S AS 20N BEYOND FORECAST 
PERIOD. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
WITH TROPICAL STORM RINA JUST E OF YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
DRIFTING W...STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING 
CHIVELAS PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SPEEDS REACHING 
NEAR GALE FORCE STRENGTH THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  

SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1031 MB NW OF BASIN PROMPTS FRESH 
TRADES FROM 10N-17N W OF 132W.  MODEL GUIDANCE MOVE HIGH PRES 
CENTER NE AND TRADES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...UNLESS INCOMING 
SHORT WAVE KICKS THEM BACK AGAIN WHICH MAY BE THE MOST LIKELY 
SCENARIO.  ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILD TO 8-12 FT UNDER NW SWELLS BY 
TUE. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES