000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N86W TO 10N95W TO 08N103W...AND 
FROM LOW PRES NEAR 11N119W TO 08N129W... THEN CONTINUES AS ITCZ 
TO 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
EXCEPT FOR ONGOING FRESH TO STRONG WIND EVENT IN A NARROW SWATH 
EXTENDING SW FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MARINE WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ARE FAIRLY BENIGN. MODEL 
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS 20-30 KT WINDS THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS TO 11 FT.

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SKIRTING NORTHWESTERN PART OF 
BASIN. SURFACE HIGH W OF SHORT WAVE WILL BUILD S OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH NE WINDS N OF 25N W 
OF 128W BY MON. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9-12 FT IN MIXED 
NW AND NE SWELL BY TUE. FRESH TRADES W OF 132W WILL SHIFT W NEXT 
FEW DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WEAKENS. 
 
$$
MUNDELL