000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN SW CARIBBEAN 
TO NW COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10.5N86W TO 09N109W THEN 
BREAKS...RESUMING FROM 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 19N11.5W TO SECOND 
LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 10.5N118W CONTINUING TO 07.5N128W...THEN 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO BEYOND 08N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF W PORTIONS OF AXIS 
BETWEEN TWO LOW PRES CENTERS.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SKIRTING NORTHWESTERN 
PART OF BASIN...WITH AXIS BEGINNING TO SWEEP MORE NE AND LIFT 
ACROSS RIDGE TO E ALONG 116W...CENTERED ON UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
NEAR 16N116W. SURFACE HIGH TO THE NW OF SHORTWAVE WILL BUILD S 
NEXT FEW DAYS AND BRING A SPURT OF ENERGY INTO FRESH 
NORTHEASTERLIES N OF 25N W OF 128W BY MON. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO 9-12 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL BY TUE. 

PRESENT WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB AT 38N137W WITH RIDGE 
SE VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 28N120W TO 21N122W...IS EXERTING 
SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT TO THE S...BETWEEN ITCZ AND 17N WHERE 
NE TRADES TO 20 KT NOW PREVAIL W OF 133W. FRESH TRADES WILL 
SHIFT W NEXT FEW DAYS AS W SEGMENT OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
110W AND 120W WEAKENS AND SHIFTS W FROM 118W TO 122W BY TUE. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES WITH NARROW BAND OF STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE WINDS EXTENDING FROM 16N94.5W TO NEAR 12N97W AS PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS SRN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS TIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE 
MAINTAINS WINDS 20-30 KT THROUGH MON...THEN SUGGESTS WINDS MAY 
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALES MON NIGHT INTO TUE IN RESPONSE TO 
TROPICAL SYSTEM NOW OVER WRN CARIBBEAN APPROACHING GULF OF 
HONDURAS. GALE WARNING MAY BE ISSUED IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TREND 
TODAY.
 
$$
STRIPLING