000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N86W TO 11N108W THEN RESUMES FROM 
1012 MB LOW PRES AT 18N111W TO SECOND LOW PRES 1012 MB AT 
11N118W TO 08N127W...THEN CONTINUES AS ITCZ TO 08N140W.    
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 113W-120W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SKIRTS NORTHWESTERN PART OF 
BASIN BRINGING A SPURT OF ENERGY INTO FRESH NORTHEASTERLIES N OF 
25N W OF 128W BY MON.  ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILD TO 12-14 FT IN NW 
SWELL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR INCURSION AS FAR S AS 15N. 

PRESENT WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB AT 30N133W DISSIPATES 
TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF 
20N E OF 128W.  PRESENT FRESH NE BREEZE S OF 20N W OF 130W 
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES DISSIPATES. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES WITH NARROW BAND OF STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE WINDS EXTENDING FROM 16N95W TO 12N96W AS PRES GRADIENT WITH 
GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS TIGHT.  MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAIN NEAR GALE 
FORCE WINDS THROUGH MON IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL SYSTEM NOW OVER 
WRN CARIBBEAN APPROACHING YUCATAN CHANNEL.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES