000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 12N104W...THEN RESUMES 
FROM 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 18N112W TO SECOND LOW 1011 MB NEAR 
11N118W TO 08N126W...THEN CONTINUES AS ITCZ TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N114W.

...DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PORTION OF MONSOON TROUGH HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD W OF 112W 
AND IS NO LONGER CONTINUOUS WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH E 
OF 105W. ANIMATED SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTED 
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
THROUGH A LOW NEAR 18N112W TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR 11N118W...WITH 
LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. A WEAK HIGH 
PRES RIDGE EXTENDS ESE FROM 35N140W TO NEAR 24N115W. THE HIGH 
WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. STRONG HIGH PRES EXPECTED 
TO DEVELOP WELL N OF THE REGION MON. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
HIGH AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH WILL CREATE FRESH NE WINDS IN 
THE NW PORTION AND INCREASE SEAS TO 11-12 FT BY TUE EVENING.

SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1622 UTC OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
REVEALED NARROW BAND OF 25-30 KT WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE COAST 
OF MEXICO NEAR 16N95W TO 12N96W. THIS INDICATES PRES GRADIENT IN 
THE CHIVELAS PASS IS STILL SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS 
MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. GFS MODEL SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO 
NEAR GALE FORCE BY LATE SUN OR EARLY MON IN RESPONSE A LOW IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LIFTING N INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH BACKING WINDS 
ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO.
 
$$
MUNDELL