000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N92W TO 19N107W TO 1012 MB LOW 
PRES AT 17N111W TO 06N124W...THEN ITCZ TO 09N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM NW OF AXIS FROM 112W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...
WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CHIVELAS PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WEAKENING AS HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO DRIFT E TODAY AND 
SUN.  BUT PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AS LOW PRES OVER SW 
CARIBBEAN SHIFT NW ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL...INCREASING N FLOW 
BACK INTO CHIVELAS PASS.  GFS MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TO NEAR GALE 
FORCE BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON. 

HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB AT 33N140W SETTING FRESH NE BREEZE FROM 
12N-20N W OF 125W WHICH WEAKEN MON AS HIGH PRES DRIFT N AND 
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO 
BASIN MON.  PRESENT FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ALONG BAJA 
CALIFORNIA W COAST N OF 25N E OF 124W ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
TODAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES N.

WEAK LOW PRES CENTER 1012 MB PRESENTLY EMBEDDED IN MONSOON 
TROUGH AT 17N110W NOT EXPECTED TO GATHER ANY STRENGTH AS UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BOTH ADVERSE.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES