000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220351
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI OCT 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
17N109W TO 07N125W...THEN ITCZ TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.

...DISCUSSION...
WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ARE VEERING MORE EASTWARD OVER THE
PAST 6-12 HOURS AS HIGH PRES IN THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS E AND 
WEAKENS. AS A RESULT...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE 
20-25 KT MOST OF THE TIME...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT 
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...IN DRAINAGE FLOW. 

HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N115W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS WINDS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT W OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST EXCEPT N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W AND 124W. 
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED FROM 10N 
TO 18N W OF 135W FOR A FEW DAYS.

MONSOON TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED W-SW MONSOONAL FLOW DOMINATE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 20N AND E OF 110W. 5-6 FT LONG PERIOD 
SWELL FROM THE SRN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THIS AREA. SEAS 
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS A NEW PULSE OF SW SWELL ARRIVES SAT.
 
$$
MUNDELL