000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI OCT 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 17N106W TO 07N124W...THEN 
AS ITCZ AXIS TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
150 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHIP OBS FROM PASSENGER SHIP CORAL PRINCESS...CALL SIGN ZCDF4...
TRANSITING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLIER TODAY INDICATED PEAK 
WINDS OF 55 KT AT 1300 UTC NEAR 15.6N 95.1W...AND GALE FORCE 
WINDS AT 1200 AND 1400 UTC. BUT HEIGHT OF ANEMOMETER AND VISUAL 
ESTIMATE OF WINDS TEND TO SUPPORT WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. 
COLD AIR SPILLING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO CROSSING THE CHIVELAS 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DIMINISHED BELOW GALE 
FORCE BUT CONTINUES AS STRONG BREEZE WITH N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 
KT. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN 
THE 20-30 KT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY INCREASING 
TO MINIMAL GALE DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...
ENHANCED BY TYPICAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 

HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N112W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT W OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. MODERATE NE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT 
WITHIN 24 HOURS S OF THE RIDGE FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 135W AND 
CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS.

MONSOON TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED W-SW MONSOONAL FLOW DOMINATE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 20N AND E OF 110W. LONG PERIOD SW 
SWELL FROM THE SRN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH 
OFFSHORE SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NEW PULSE OF SW SWELL ARRIVES SAT.
 
$$
MUNDELL