000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N96W TO 15N104W TO 07N125W THEN 
ITCZ TO 09N134W TO 09N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1021 MB MOVES E OF 90W EASING TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS SW GULF OF MEXICO.  COLD AIR CROSSING CHIVELAS 
PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE... 
BUT CONTINUE AS STRONG BREEZE.  MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTION POINTS 
TO A DOWNWARD TREND NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN NEAR 
GALE FORCE THEREAFTER WITH NEW COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS GULF OF 
MEXICO.  SIMILARLY...SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY END OF FORECAST 
PERIOD JUST TO BUILD AGAIN.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB 
NEAR 33N132W AND WEAK TROUGH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA EXPECTED MAKE 
SHORT-LIVED ENCROACHMENT S TO JUST N OF 28N TODAY AND DIMINISH 
WITHIN 24 HRS WHILE N SWELLS LINGER SLIGHTLY LONGER.

$$
WALLY BARNES