000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI OCT 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N90W TO 13N98W TO 15N106W TO 
08N124W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 08N124W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 107W. 

...DISCUSSION...

TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS ONGOING...BUT LACK OF IN-SITU OVER
WATER OBSERVATIONS MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE PRESENT. LATEST GFS MODEL FORECAST INDICATES GALES ARE 
NO LONGER PRESENT...BUT MAINTAIN 20-30 KT WINDS FOR 3 OR 4 MORE 
DAYS. FORCING SHOULD DIMINISH SAT AS THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE 
MEXICAN GULF OF MEXICO COAST MOVES E AND WEAKENS. REINFORCING 
COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CHIVELA PASS 
WILL CONTINUE THE N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BACK UP TO GALE FORCE BY MON. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 11 FEET TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH TO 8 FEET SATURDAY.

WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS 
EVIDENT FROM ANIMATED SAT IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER NEAR 15N104W.
FORECAST MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK BROAD LOW NEAR 15N113W WITHIN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

COLD FRONT INCURSIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED INTO NW PORTION THROUGH 
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LONG-PERIOD SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-10 
FEET SHOULD BEGIN REACHING NW PORTION BY MONDAY MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL