000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 16N94W TO 17N106W TO 10N119W TO 12N128W TO 
09N134W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 
14N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...CONVERGENT FRESH W TO SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH ARE MAINTAINING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS 60 TO 200 NM 
S OF THE TROUGH. BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
LIFTING NE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT 
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE 
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL 
BRING GALE FORCE GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY 
WED MORNING...THEN PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL GENERATE STEEP SHORT-PERIOD SEAS UP TO 
12-14 FT BY WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 
11N100W THROUGH THU NIGHT. 18/18Z GFS MODEL RUN IS MUCH LESS 
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 100W...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH THE 18/12Z ECMWF FORECAST...LENDS GREATER CONFIDENCE TO
THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS.

W OF 110W...1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N128W ANCHORS SFC 
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. ASCAT PASS AT 1744 
UTC INDICATED WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN HIGH PRES AND THE NORTHERN 
BAJA COAST. ASCAT FURTHER WEST SHOWS MODERATE TRADES BELOW 20 KT 
WHILE JASON ALTIMETER PASS INDICATES SEAS GENERALLY 7-8 FT IN THE
AREA OF ENHANCED ENE TRADE WINDS SW OF THE HIGH PRES. SEAS WILL 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.

$$
MUNDELL