000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182118
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 16N94W TO 17N107W TO 09N120W TO 11N128W TO 
09N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 
95W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...CONVERGENCE OF SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS 
MAINTAINING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
95W AND 105W. THIS IS PART OF A LARGER AREA OF FRESH TO 
OCCASIONALLY STRONG SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT HAS 
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING MOIST AIR INTO 
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS FLOW HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LOW 
PRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND HAS 
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO 
CENTRAL AMERICA RESULTING DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A STRONG COLD 
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL 
BRING GAP WINDS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
EARLY WED MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY FRI.

W OF 110W...1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N127W. 
WINDS TO 20 KT ARE PLAUSIBLE BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE 
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO WED. FURTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH ASCAT 
SHOWS MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES S OF THE HIGH PRES...A PAIR OF 
ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW RESIDUAL PATCHES OF SEAS AROUND 8 TO 9 
FT...LIKELY IN N SWELL. THIS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH 24 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN