000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172107
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N103W TO 1011 MB REMNANT LOW OF 
IRWIN TO 08N120W TO 07N130W. ITCZ FROM 07N130W TO 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 
97W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF IRWIN IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
15N109W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
LOW. SW MONSOONAL FLOW EXTENDS FROM S OF THIS FEATURE TO THE 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS DEPICTED BY THE MOST RECENT ASCAT 
AND WINDSAT PASSES. THIS EXTENSIVE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT 
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN 
MEXICO. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN SECTIONS OF THE 
PACIFIC COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL 
SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE PERIODS OF HEAVY 
MONSOONAL RAINFALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE LIFE-THREATENING 
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN SOME AREAS.

A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N137W. WINDS ASSOCIATED 
TO THE LOW HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT. COMBINED SEAS TO 10 FT 
IN N SWELL CONTINUE OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA. THIS SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE MOVING S AS IT SLOWLY SUBSIDES TO 8 FT OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY 
AND RAPIDLY SPREAD S AND E. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE LATE TUE. THIS WILL FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INCREASING WINDS 20 TO 30 KT 
BY WED MORNING...AND GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON. 

$$
AL