000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171511
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO 
NEAR 18N102W TO 07N128W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N128W TO BEYOND 
11N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE 
MONSOON TROUGH OF ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF IRWIN IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE 
SW MONSOONAL FLOW EXTENDS FROM S OF THIS FEATURE TO THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AS DEPICTED BY THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. THIS 
EXTENSIVE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW 
CONTINUES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SECTIONS OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL 
WILL OCCUR IN SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN 
MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND 
NICARAGUA. THE PERIODS OF HEAVY MONSOONAL RAINFALL HAVE THE 
POTENTIAL TO CREATE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES 
IN SOME AREAS.

A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N137W. WINDS OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 
KT. COMBINED SEAS TO 10 FT IN N SWELL CONTINUE OVER THE NW PART 
OF THE AREA. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE MOVING S AS IT SLOWLY 
SUBSIDES TO 9 FT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
AL