000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130300 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU OCT 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... JOVA WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW OVER MEXICO AND THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT 13/0300 UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 21.7N 104.2W MOVING TOWARD THE NE OR 045 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE COASTLINE AND WITHIN 120 NM NW QUADRANT OF JOVA. THE REMNANT OF JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND NAYARIT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IRWIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGAIN. AT 13/0300 UTC... IT IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 108.6W MOVING TOWARD THE NE OR 050 DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS NOW 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO WITHIN 60 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE CENTER OF IRWIN. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST KEEPS IRWIN AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW AND THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT 13/0300 UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 93.8W MOVING TOWARD THE NE OR 040 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER STEEP TERRAIN. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH INLAND OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO THEN RESUMES W OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN FROM 16N114W TO 11N125W TO 08N135W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 08N135W TO BEYOND 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 103W. ...DISCUSSION... WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 31N137W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE NW WATERS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER WESTERN MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REMNANT LOW OF JOVA IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF NLY WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 24N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE 0016 UTC EXPERIMENTAL ASCAT 25 KM COASTAL WINDS SHOWED NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 25N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS AS JOVA DISSIPATES OVER LAND. DUE TO THE WEAK HIGH PRES...TRADE WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH 30N140W LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS EXTENDING FROM 30N134W TO 25N140W FRI EVENING. NW WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA S OF THE THREE SPECIAL FEATURES NOTED ABOVE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED A VAST EXPANSE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION S OF THESE TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 120W. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD ALONG 10N TO BETWEEN 85W AND 110W BY FRIDAY AS THE THREE TROPICAL SYSTEMS WEAKEN AND SW FLOW FEEDS INTO A MONSOONAL GYRE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A LARGE AREA OF 12 FT SEAS OR GREATER ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN AND STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W. A PULSE OF NW SWELL WILL MERGE WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ON THU GENERATING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT OVER MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS...BUT PARTICULARLY E OF 130W. $$ GR