000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092157 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN OCT 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOVA CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 107.9W AT 09/2100 UTC MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM NE OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN OUTER BANDS IS WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N106W TO 18N107W...AND ALSO FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 109W-112W. LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS JOVA TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES ON AN EASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND MOVING INLAND MEXICO NEAR 21N105W BY WED AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THAT PART OF MEXICO SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY INFORMATION FOR RELATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS AFFECTING MEXICO AS RELATED TO THE NEAR FUTURE LANDFALL OF JOVA ON THE MEXICAN COAST. TROPICAL STORM IRWIN CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 119.3W AT 09/2100 UTC MOVING ENE OR 065 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN OF THE CENTER WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS IRWIN TO REMAIN ON A NE TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...THEN PERHAPS TURN MORE IN A SELY DIRECTION TO NEAR 16N115W BY 48 HRS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS...HOWEVER STRENGTHENING IS VERY POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. A 1006 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 11N96W IS DRIFTING ENE...OR ABOUT 300 NM SW OF THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SW QUADRANT. THE LOW LEVEL LEVEL CENTER REMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE E OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS NLY WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG. HOWEVER...FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW TO TRANSPIRE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS A THE LOW TRACKS TO THE E-NE. WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT ARE FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW IN 24 HRS....THEN INCREASE TO 33 KT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT IN ABOUT 48 HRS. A HIGH CHANCE FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WILL EXIST WITH THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 13N88W TO A 1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N96W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE TROUGH DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE IRWIN AND TROPICAL STORM JOVA. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM 12N123W TO 08N138W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N138W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N90W TO 06N99W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W AND WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N101W TO 15N101W. ...DISCUSSION... THE 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N141W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N122W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IRWIN AND HURRICANE JOVA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH NE TRADES FROM 18N-22N W OF 130W. THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES SW AND IRWIN AND JOVA MOVE E. A DEVELOPING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER INLAND MEXICO WILL BRING FRESH NW TO N WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 26N TO 30N IN ABOUT 24-30 HRS...AND LAST THROUGH 48 HRS. ON MON...THE NE MOTION OF IRWIN WILL ERODE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE STRONGEST PRES GRADIENT TO OVER N CENTRAL WATERS WHERE FRESH N WINDS WILL DEVELOP. BY LATE MON...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA SHIFTING THE AREA OF TRADES BACK TO THE E. FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA S OF THE THREE SPECIAL FEATURES NOTED ABOVE. THE PRES GRADIENT IS STRONGEST BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA EXTENDING W TO ENCOMPASS IRWIN AND JOVA. ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STRONG AND MERGE WITH THE LOW PRES DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AS PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND AROUND THIS LOW. THE STRENGTHENING SW FLOW OVER EASTERN WATERS WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA ALSO REMAINS UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. NW SWELL IS CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS AND IS MERGING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OVER CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING THE AREAS NEAR JOVA AND IRWIN. COMBINED SEAS ARE AS HIGH AS 10 FT IN THIS AREA WHERE MERGING SWELL COMBINED WITH FRESHLY GENERATED WIND WAVES IS CREATING A VERY CONFUSED AND CHAOTIC SEA STATE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE SW SWELL BECOMES THE DOMINANT SWELL COMPONENT...AND BUILDS TO 12 FT IN 48 HRS. A NEW PULSE OF NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MON OVER THE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 123W-131W WHERE N-NE 20 KT ARE EXPECTED. THIS SWELL WILL KICK UP SEAS TO 8 FT BY EARLY ON MON...AND TO 9 FT ON TUE N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W-125W WHERE N WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED. $$ AGUIRRE