000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080306 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT OCT 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE IRWIN CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 121.3W AT 08/0300 UTC MOVING W NW OR 295 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER IRWIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE E-NE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF W CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH 120 HOURS. ONLY MINOR STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36-48 HOURS THEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BUT MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH THU. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45-60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND 120-180 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF IRWIN. TROPICAL STORM JOVA CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 110.6W AT 08/0300 UTC MOVING N OR 350 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NE EXPECTED AFTERWARD WITH JOVA EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO W CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL POSSIBLE LANDFALL WITH JOVA FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY SAT EVENING. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND 180-240 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF JOVA. 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 11N95.5W DRIFTING WEST AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N86W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N95.5W TO 16N107W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE TROUGH DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE IRWIN AND TROPICAL STORM JOVA. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM 12N124W TO 08N135W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 127W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... 1030 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N136W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N112W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE AREAS OF LOW PRES OF HURRICANE IRWIN AND TROPICAL STORM JOVA IS PRODUCING FRESH 20 KT TRADES N OF 20N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W AND FROM 20N TO 26N W OF 120W AS DEPICTED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THESE TRADES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER INLAND MEXICO IS MAINTAINING FRESH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 26N TO 30N WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NW SWELL IS CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 12 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. THE AREA OF 8 FT OR GREATER SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE S. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE N AND NE...SPANNING THE COASTLINES OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE NW SWELL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS WITH FRESHLY GENERATED SEAS AROUND IRWIN AND JOVA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY CONFUSED SEA STATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ LEWITSKY